Movies like “2012”, “The Day After Tomorrow” and “Contagion” are familiar to most people in the context of being “disaster movies”. Seemingly far-fetched and exaggerated, most audiences would simply take them at face value or write them off as fiction. But if you think that, you have another think coming.
It’s not news to anyone that climate change is affecting the scale, frequency and geographical range of natural disasters. From tornados to tsunamis, wildfires to floods, and even volcanic eruptions, the Earth is hitting us with everything She’s got. Still, humanity has found a way to be more prepared now that we have become better at predicting the weather. So even though there are more disasters, we have somehow managed to keep death tolls low enough to reassure ourselves that not as many people are dying today as there were 50 years ago. However, the number of disasters caused by climate change is likely to keep escalating, and in this case, prevention is definitely better (and more feasible) than cure.
This brings us to an often overlooked potential for disaster, whose death toll is far more complicated to predict or manage: pandemics. Some theories warn of ancient zombie pathogens of the past re-emerging from the rapidly thawing permafrost. Those studying these potential infectious agents found that some of the bacteria are inherently antibiotic resistant even though they have been frozen for millions of years. Scientists are divided on whether these types of virulent organisms can truly pose a large scale threat to humanity considering the fact that the probability of revival and pathogenicity towards human beings is quite low. Still, in this case, vigilance is better than virulence.
In the not-so-distant future, the more infamous and contemporary microbes could be a greater risk. Recently, the melting of superficial layers of permafrost caused an anthrax scare in Northern Russia where the thawed carcass of an infected reindeer released spores of the pathogen. It is considered a possibility that the Spanish flu or smallpox could also “rise from the dead”, quite literally. Increasing global temperatures are expanding the territories of more “tropical” parasites and infectious critters that flourish in warm weather. For instance, the malarial parasite which has already acquired resistance to several drugs, could spread further and further Northward as warmer temperatures allow for mosquitos to migrate.
Meanwhile, well-known viruses such as influenza, Ebola and chikungunya that have already reached pandemic scales in the recent past, may choose to make a comeback while we continue to lack sufficient vaccines and antivirals against them. Cholera too, poses a massive threat as a water-borne disease in a flooding-prone world. In such cases, biotechnological advances could prove to be a double-edged sword; while some work towards eradication of diseases, many others may purposefully develop bioweapons in the form of highly virulent microbes. Thus, future wars may not only be fought over water but perhaps by infecting it!
Although infectious pandemics, mega-storms and bio-wars are acute disasters that fit the definition of being “disasters”, it could be argued that as long as we continue to destroy our environment, we will be living in a chronic state of disaster, presently and well into the future. Chronic diseases like respiratory illness, which pathogens take advantage of, frequently arise from increased air pollution. Cancers too, often have environmental causes such as exposure to mutagens like UV or plastic contamination. Thus, preventing disaster requires a truly concerted effort by humanity as a whole. But who knows, maybe asteroid-, robot- or alien-based disasters are lurking in the shadows to destroy us if climate change doesn’t.
